Nearly half of the licensed gun dealers in the U.S. would go out of business if not for gun sales that end up trafficked into Mexico. We’re empowering criminals to continue trafficking as long as these illegal gun sales continue. We can’t let this go on. pic.twitter.com/MBPZiAdDIQ
— Congressman Robert Garcia (@RepRobertGarcia) November 15, 2023
In a Congressional hearing, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) claimed that 50% of all gun stores would shut down if it were not for the Mexican drug cartels. This claim sounds absurd, but AmmoLand News took the steps to verify if what the Congressman said was true.
AmmoLand News found out where Rep. Garcia got the information. The Council on Foreign Relations provided the Congressman with the study. AmmoLand News determined the study was a 2013 study from the University of San Diego Trans-Border Institute titled: The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Traffic Across the U.S.-Mexico Border.
First, we need to determine if the study claimed that cartel activity is responsible for keeping 50% of the gun stores in the country open. The study claims that 46.7% of the gun industry is dependent on the U.S.-Mexico firearms trade. The study does not attempt to tie this number to the Mexican drug cartels, making Rep. Garcia’s statements false.
Let us look at the study to further disprove the numbers.
According to the study, 2.2% of firearms made in the U.S. are destined for Mexico. The study does admit this number could be as low as 0.9%. This statistic includes all legal and illegal sales. The study assumes the number of guns trafficked to Mexico between 2010-2012 is 253,000. This estimate assumes that only 15% of trafficked guns are stopped at the border. This number is a guess at best. In 2012 alone, there were nearly 17 million background checks run on gun sales, according to the FBI.
It is worth noting the guns flowing to Mexico during the study were at the same time as the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Operation Fast and Furious gun-walking scandal.
“A sizeable and growing percentage of U.S. firearms sales are destined for Mexico: 2.2% (between 0.9% and 3.7%) of U.S. domestic arms sales are attributable to the U.S.-Mexico traffic. This percentage is up from roughly 1.75% (between 0.66% and 3.15%) in 1993,” the study reads.
The study also uses a unique way of calculating the profit margins of gun stores. For low-end stores, the study used the average profit margin of gas stations and averaged it with the average profit margin of a food and beverage store (2.34%). In the midrange gun store, the study took the average profits of hardware stores, electronics stores, and general stores (4.68%). For high-end firearms shops, it was just assumed it was around 7%. The study doesn’t give a source for that number.
“We approximated low-end margins by averaging those of gas stations (around 1.68%) and food and beverage stores (at around 3%). We derived a mid-range estimate by averaging the profit margins of hardware stores (4.45%), electronics stores (4.68%), and general stores (4.91%). We took the 7% figure above as representing a high-end estimate,” the study reads.
The study does say it might have overestimated the demand arising from U.S.-Mexico gun trafficking. They state the demand might be from so-called “Minutemen” militias that patrol the border. Also, it included firearms carried by law enforcement officers responsible for border security. For example, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) officers’ firearms might be reflected in the firearms counted by the study. The study’s authors also might have included legal immigrants who have settled near the border.
The study also points out that guns purchased by Americans who live near the border in response to the influx of illegal immigrants from Mexico might have been considered in the study. The study also counted guns that are being exported to South America and pass through Mexico in its stats.
Even in the face of these issues with the study, the researchers think their numbers are conservative.
“There are at least three possible ways our methodology might have over-estimated the demand arising from U.S.-Mexico trafficking. First, proximity to the Mexican border may be a proxy for domestic factors, rather than the U.S.-Mexico firearms trade. One possible example is the so- officers – may themselves contribute to demand. Another example of this type of unaccounted for domestic demand, legal or undocumented immigrants may tend to settle close to the border, and may also exhibit a greater per capita demand for firearms than the American populace at large. Alternatively, border communities may also purchase more firearms in response to immigrant influxes (though large immigrant communities are hardly unique to the U.S.-Mexico border region),” the study states.
Calls to Do Something:
The study concludes with several suggestions. One of the suggestions is to provide where gun sales tax revenues are being allocated by county. The study’s authors claim that this would help law enforcement identify unusual activities and determine how many guns are sold in specific regions.
The study authors also call for enhanced background checks. They claim this change would cut down on straw purchases and would trigger further investigations. The researchers did not lay out any specific changes to the background checks.
The research paper also calls for the end of cash sales near the border. They are trying to establish a paper trail. Their theory is that no one would use a credit card or check to buy a gun for illicit purposes. Gun stores not on the border would still be free to take cash.
U.S. law prevents the ATF and other government agencies from storing information on firearms and traces. The study suggests a workaround by having Mexico store U.S citizen’s gun purchase information since Mexico is not bound by U.S. law. Mexico would then share the information with U.S. law enforcement agencies such as the FBI and the ATF.
The final solution is to have gun stores work more closely with the ATF and develop self-regulation and self-reporting. The study states that most federal firearms licensees (FFLs) are law-abiding, but with the Biden Administration’s hostility towards FFLs, this action seems like a long shot.
The Trans-Border Institute is part of the Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies. The article doesn’t appear to have been peer-reviewed. The lead researcher, Professor Topher L. McDougal, has written several anti-gun studies.
For these reasons, AmmoLand News has determined that Rep. Robert Garcia’s claim about 50% of gun stores going out of business without Mexican drug cartels is false and not based on any factual data.
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Current Claim Rating:
- Claim: “Nearly half of the licensed gun dealers in the U.S. would go out of business if not for gun sales that end up trafficked into Mexico.”
- Rating: 1 (Completely False)
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The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Traffic Across the U.S.-Mexico Border
About John Crump
John is a NRA instructor and a constitutional activist; he has written about firearms and interviewed people of all walks of life. Mr. Crump lives in Northern Virginia with his wife and sons and can be followed on X at @crumpyss, or at www.crumpy.com.